The big hurdle will be to get companies and devs to write everything in the Modern/Metro. As soon as MS gets finished writing Office in it I think the Desktop app will not be included in 9. It will be an all walled-garden OS.
That's true on the App side,, but I seriously doubt they are going to remove the desktop completely from Win9.
I can tell you, if that is true, I will buy one Copy to check it out, but Win8 will be my last Windows OS.
I know for a fact I am not alone on that. and Many companies would not upgrade for a very long while as they will have to re-code everything. They aren't going to invest that kind of resources this quickly.
It would be another 10 years.
No, Azure is moving forward, but companies as a whole are not ready and a lot of them aren't going to fork out the cash for the resources till it makes complete financial sense to do so.
I would say, that anyone in IT should get ready for the Business Class Cloud though.
First and foremost through all of this > Not only has MS changed in restructuring and market/product target, but they are diversifying as well with products and services. I realize that’s no big secret really.
You brought up three important words > complete financial sense. MS is in no way ignorant to this. I think you are correct in forecasting the Business Class Cloud OS, but should add as a subscription model as well. This will be true for a native OS also if a business, government, schools, other organizations, etc. choose that. Here's where size does matter. They'll cut businesses, etc, deals that they really can't refuse and have the support behind them to do so.
So much talk around here lately on open source as an alternative. That's ok so far as free, but what about support? You'd better have a very good in-house professional IT support team to do so, which comes at a high cost, otherwise there's going to be a lot of down time. It isn't the price of the software product that's the biggest cost of a project. No, it's the support. And to add it's not so much when hardware or software falters or breaks, but rather when software has to change to fit any changed circumstances of a business, etc.
Now it's time to mention the other two tech giants > Apple and Google. What do they have to offer? Well, Apple makes more profit on hardware than anything else. That seems to be their specialty. Can businesses afford those kinds of prices? Might as well sell jewelry also. Google makes tons of profit on advertising and data tracking. That's their specialty. Businesses need that so far as marketing, but that's about it. Don't forget the integration of Bing in Windows. So what's MS' specialty? Same as it's been all along and what made them the giant they are > Writing software > Cutting edge software > MS Office suite being their mainstay.
That's where the walled-garden (more secure) side-loading custom-tailored apps fit in. I think this will be the most appealing to business, government, schools, and other organizations. That doesn't fit your business, government, or organization model any longer? Then it can be custom tailored for you. If I was a dev, I'd be jumping all over this. Endless possibilities with it. That's the real reason why MS is pushing it so much. Everyone seems to think apps will be developed for consumption use only such as we see with other company stores. They are rewriting Office presently. OneNote in Modern/Metro is offered via the Store already > free for now. CAD, Picture editing, Readers, or any other productive software company had better jump on the bandwagon otherwise they’ll be left out. MS will write it to sell in their store.
Allow me to add here that we're a little over the horizon on BYO, which is appealing to businesses and would fit in the MS cloud OS subscription model better. Let me tell you what happened in the construction industry after the housing crash. Want to work? Then BYO tools for we're cutting that expense. Didn't think it was fair to a working stiff, but just saying that's what happened. It seems expenses get cut to the lowest common denominator.
We'll have to watch the charts but I feel those companies coming off of XP don't move to 8.1 straightaway would be ignorant IMO. The desktop there to optionally boot to will exist until 1/10/23. That's roughly 9-1/2 years. 7 will be supported until 1/14/20. That's roughly 5-1/2 years. So, therefore, I think the Desktop app won't be included in 9.
Windows lifecycle fact sheet - Microsoft Windows Help
Bottom line in all this? Go ahead and move onto something else. Let me know how it goes. I myself saw the potential in 8.x not too long after installing and using it. Jumped on the bandwagon and bought a Lumia just before the first of the year. Sure simplified my computing life to ease up time to do other things.