Thanks for posting the link.
I think the Desktop will disappear when most of the "four million desktop apps" used (seems like a high figure to me) are written in the Modern interface. I'm guestimating five years. It will remain a portal to the Modern UI until then.
An organization, just like a living organism, needs to grow in order to survive. This is MS's dilemma -> Growth into the modern changing markets. Where one's target market (in MS's case the desktop PC) has flat lined, one must look for other markets to grow. It seems to me that touch-centric mobile devices are where it's at. It's all too bloody obvious.
This was the genius of Steve Jobs. It's not that he was so much a great salesman that so many report, but he was greater at market insight and innovation supplying needed mobile devices, such as the iPhone and iPad along with an app store. He knew his Mac and lappy market flat lined, so he diversified with other demanding and growing markets. He also knew he wasn't going to encroach into MS's turf of enterprise desktop PCs. (Keep in mind Google also) But, MS can certainly infringe onto their turf to diversify for growth and survival.
In being rather risky, MS is performing a high wire balancing act to fulfill everyone's needs in this crucial transitional period. We have enterprise with it's demands on one side for creation, whom, after all, made MS the successful corporation that it is. These are the ones that need the desktop the most, for as Bott states, "The four million desktop apps need to run somewhere".
On the other side we have Mr. and Mrs. Joe Consumer who are the ones buying up most of these mobile devices for consumption. They could care less if their app or program opens up on desktop or not, just as long as it opens and functions with what they are attempting to seek. Emails, social apps/sites, and news for the most part. They could care less if it was an app or an internet site. They could care less if it was Win32, RT, or full Modern/Metro, nor most likely would they know. All they want is their information and to post/share information in a timely matter.
Here's where the genius of MS's innovation comes in with 8, 8RT, the Surfaces, and Windows phone 8. An OS that runs on and across multiple devices to run the same apps no matter what type of device. When we think about it will be simplified for all, no matter who we are, no matter how much knowledge we have of computing devices, and/or whether we're using the device for creation or consumption. Kind of like a "unification". MS needed to create a store to sell apps, not only to bring about this "unification", but also to diversify for revenue. After all, it is a money maker for Apple, Google, and others.
Not sure, but I think Google's Play Store apps run across all their platforms, but I see there are two Apple app stores. One for apps to run on OSX and one for apps to run on iOS. I'm assuming they are not the same apps? If so, does that mean I have to buy an app twice if I want it on my other devices? Any which way, I know when I download a Microsoft Store app, whether free or bought, I can download it on all my devices. Simple.
Another crucial piece. Let's say one owns a desktop PC with Windows on it, an Apple laptop with OSX, and an Android OS phone. One then needs to learn and remember three different systems and ways of navigation. Let's say they update the Android or I need to get a new Android phone with the latest OS on it. I have to learn that system's changes. Then let's say they update Windows with an SP1. I have to learn that even if the changes are slight. Worse scenario is that all three update at the same time. I think you get the jest of where I'm heading. It may be fun for us techies/enthusiasts, but for Mr. and Mrs. Joe Consumer I would imagine it's no fun.
Would it not be more convenient if one OS ran across multiple devices with the same apps? Familiar no matter what device we pick up to use. Simple IMO.