Here is my take.
They are not targeting the Power User. They are not currently targeting the corporate user. They are making an OS that will advance their agenda. The "average" user will just get whatever operating system is currently being sold on pre-built PCs and laptops. They will struggle with the learning curve regardless, to some level. They will not switch to an alternative OS, but rather make do.
The Power user will either like, and adopt 8, or stick with 7. And/or install 7 when they need a new PC.
The corporate user will do the same, in fact, for those still on XP who have been waiting, this may finally push them to switch to 7, as they now see there isn't a better alternative forthcoming.
To be honest, for all but the most experienced users, there will be no other OS to use, but whatever flavor of Windows is available. The vast majority will not switch to Linux, or buy a Mac.
You can be sure that while MS might seem to be misguided, they do have a comprehensive strategy. And they do realize they have a "captive" user base.
A Guy