Sorry, PC Industry: You’ve Apparently Perfected the PC

Research firm IDC (which is part of my former employer, IDG) has released new numbers on PC sales, and there’s only one way to describe them: they’re uuuuuuuuuuuuuuugly.

How ugly? Worldwide shipments in the first quarter were down 13.9% over the first quarter of 2012. That’s not only worse than IDC’s already gloomy expectations — it’s the biggest drop since 1994, when the company started publishing these quarterly figures.

Source

A Guy
 
Hi there
It's SO bleedin' obvious -- why is it that people NEVER understand -- once a market matures of course the number of products sold will diminish SIGNIFICANTLY (unless you believe in conspiracy theories where the products are built so poorly or have "planned obsolescence" built in that they have to be replaced frequently). PC's these days don't need upgrading very often --if at all. The whole market is MUCH MUCH smaller -- to say nothing of other devices that people now use instead of the traditional PC.

The market say for a new 8 way processor with a 128GB RAM memory and a 2TB SSD will be tiny (it will for sure exist) but in no way be anything like the PC market of a few years ago.

The market is NOT DEAD -- but just different -- and much smaller.

Mind you people are always taken in by "Invest in this company -- it's growing at say 30% a year" -- well this rate of growth can't continue indefinitely and then people are surprised when the growth rate slows.

Even the once mighty "Fruit Company" is realizing this.

Other factors too like the economy etc also can effect growth but it's very difficult to handle a "Mature Market" -- totally different problems to one in which the market is hugely expanding.

(New computing devices will appear in due course -- say Holographic projection and good Virtual Reality simulators but these aren't "Classical PC's" and are a few years off yet --even for the Lottery winners).

Cheers
jimbo
 

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Couple of reasons that PC sales are down, and they are tied together

  • People are buying more tablets and smartphones to do the various things they often use a computer for.
  • The tablets and smartphones are supplementing their PC's. So, since they have newer devices to do some of their stuff, they don't feel compelled or find it necessary to replace their desktop/laptop PC's. Thus, they continue to use their older devices longer than ever before.
 

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The world of computing has been changing for some time now, and for some reason people just cannot see it happening. I used to have three computing systems (Win, Mac, and Linux) now I am down to two (Mac with win 7 in boot camp; win 8 and Linux in dual boot). My Mac is four years old (still working good, and the HP is four months old) thus there is no reason for anything new until one of them crashes big time.

To blame the decrease in the number of computers being sold on an OS is just wrong. It would appear that if people want a new computer they can put whatever OS they want on them. I would really like to see Linux take off, albeit if the Linux Distros' do not find a way to improve the ease of use they will never get Linux to go mainstream. Heck with Virtual Box improving almost daily running win 7 on a Linux platform is getting easier by the day. I have been thinking of giving Linux with Virtual Box a system of its own just to see how good it will work.
 

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The world of computing has been changing for some time now, and for some reason people just cannot see it happening. I used to have three computing systems (Win, Mac, and Linux) now I am down to two (Mac with win 7 in boot camp; win 8 and Linux in dual boot). My Mac is four years old (still working good, and the HP is four months old) thus there is no reason for anything new until one of them crashes big time.

To blame the decrease in the number of computers being sold on an OS is just wrong. It would appear that if people want a new computer they can put whatever OS they want on them. I would really like to see Linux take off, albeit if the Linux Distros' do not find a way to improve the ease of use they will never get Linux to go mainstream. Heck with Virtual Box improving almost daily running win 7 on a Linux platform is getting easier by the day. I have been thinking of giving Linux with Virtual Box a system of its own just to see how good it will work.

Hi there
Vmplayer for Linux (free) also with VMware seems OK too -- VMware runs on Linux OK as well and the VM's will work either on Windows or a Linux host too.

I prefer VMware to vbox -- although YMMV.

Cheers
jimbo
 

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Hi Jim,

I two prefer VMWare though have not given it a try on Linux as of yet. Will look to see what the cost is (if any as I have a store bought version of 9).
 

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It's also worth remembering that PC users are a lot more savvy these days when it comes to upgrading so instead of chucking the old black box out like they may have done a few years ago when it got slow or when they ran out of storage space, they consider an upgrade of RAM, storage, CPU, etc. Also factor in that the minimum system requirements for Windows 7 is only really 2GB of RAM and, by today's standards, a relatively slow CPU and we can see where the market has declined.

Add the fact that, as has been mentioned, the functionality that you may only have had on a PC many years ago is now available on a smartphone and younger users can access content from there, from an internet cafe, libraries and schools, the need for a full-blown desktop is virtually nil. So why invest in one?!

That will likely change with touch devices and this is where MS and their OEMs need to get their collective arses in gear!
 

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Hi there

slow boxes can easily be used for things like multi-media streaming etc - so even these don't need to be sent on a one way trip to "The Tip".

@Lee -- if you use vmplayer on Linux it's FREE. VMware workstation like its Windows counterpart is a paid for model. I prefer workstation for all sorts of reasons and I got one via a corporate / site license but since a few releases back vmplayer can also now CREATE virtual machines so it's worth looking at where you don't need the full functionality of VMware workstation.

In your store bought copy of rel 9 it probably already has VMware player included.

(Actually you always could create a virtual machine for vmplayer - but it was a bit of a fiddle --you created a virtual VHD via QEMU -- remember that "Old dog" and then you also edited the vmx configuration file - bingo -- new Virtual machine. !! -- however that's history now).

Cheers
jimbo
 

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If we're talking about the desktop being perfected....eeehhhhhh. Not so much. A generic black ATX box with entry level peripherals doesn't strike me as perfected. Usually if someone is in the market for a desktop, they're probably building one themselves or it's for the enterprise space.

If we're talking about laptops....eeeehhhhh. maybe. It's not as great, but it's pretty much stabilized spec wise and with several different price points.

If we're talking about tablet PCs, that hasn't even come CLOSE to being perfected, holy crap! OEMs are still using the ipad as a design template over actually thinking otherwise. More I/O connectivity should be in place for tablets, basically build them as a laptop. Build a tablet that can be user serviced. Build a tablet that is simple for simple use for people with simple needs. Build a tablet with higher end needs for people who need more higher end portable needs. So on and so forth. The laptop form factor has that type of thing with different specs for different needs. Tablet PCs aren't even there yet.

But if we want to put blame, I'd actually put some blame on Windows altogether, mostly vista. Since vista, OEMs had to raise their specs on their PCs from a single core processor and 2 gigs of RAM with small hard drives to dual core and 4 gigs of RAM standard with very ample hard drive space. The year of 2008 was about when this came about as the industry standard as the Windows OS at the time was horrid without higher end hardware. Then came 7, which made running the OS on that new standard of specs even smoother, 8 even more. Microsoft has dedicated themselves to making sure future Windows version are even more streamlined, primarily due to the use of MinWin. There isn't a need to upgrade those specs anymore. vista needed a proper graphics to just run Aero, same as 7 to a lesser extent. In Windows 8, a graphics card that was slammed trying to just run vista or 7 in Basic mode runs pretty ok with Windows 8. Even on an xp era PC, Windows 8 can run better than on that PC than xp could.

And there lies the snub, OEMs built PCs at a higher standard of hardware to run an over the top superfluous UI; which if ran on Windows 8 runs very smoothly. This is kind of where Windows RT also comes in, the ARM processor for a lot of people is actually just fine, look at the ipad and android tablet sales. People have those tablets in conjunction with a PC because of a lack of certain PC software on the Desktop. Theoretically and hypothetically, if certain Desktop apps were to be compiled in the WinRT form (meaning the ACTUAL entirety of the Desktop app is in WinRT form with the full feature set as the Desktop counterpart) on the ARM processor, Windows RT can really excel. Battery life is all day on those tablets, performance is actual quite decent. Thus in turn means tablet PCs are thinner, lighter, and less expensive. What will happen is that Windows RT could be used primarily in the consumer space, x86 processors could be used in the enterprise/enthusiast/workstation/gaming PC space.
 

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Hi Jimbo

Thanks for the info. I already us VMplayer for several Linux Distro Appliances, and several off the wall VM Appliances. Been thinking about doing a Linux Built since doing away with my nine year old Suse built (along with upgrades) a year ago. Will probably go back to Suse since I have it down fairly well.

Sorry to the OP for going off topic. . .:thumbsup:
 

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Is there an off topic here? :D No worries, it's all about information (disinformation), and discussion. A Guy
 

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Is there an off topic here? :D No worries, it's all about information (disinformation), and discussion. A Guy

Darn, your easy. Thanks. . .:thumbsup:. . .:roflmao:
 

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    Foxconn - 2ADA Ivy Brige
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    Mitsubishi LED TV/Montior HD, Dell 23 HD, Hanspree 25" HD
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The slow down in the PC market is the result of a couple of issues.

The problem is two-fold.

1) Computers are simply lasting or staying useful much longer than they used to. People are able to use the hardware they have to run the most recent games, office suites and other software without needing to lay out for new hardware to do it.


2) In light of issue #1, Windows 8 IS NOT inspiring people to layout for new hardware that they otherwise wouldn't need. It has no new “whiz bang” feature that people are clamoring for. In fact, people are more and more developing a strong aversion to it.

Nothing can be done about #1 at the moment. Computers last how long they last. Software using up all available horse power in a system is still a long ways off considering what computers these days are capable of.

As for #2, well, give the people what they want. Desktop users, gamer’s, non-consuming driven people, want Metro gone from our lives. We don’t want it, we don’t like it. Give us the option to be rid of it. This would instantly sell 4 copies of Windows 8 just to my household alone.


Of course getting rid of Metro would be counter to Microsoft’s marketing strategy. They want to force it’s use on the desktop and laptop, under the theory that you will so love it, that when you go to buy your new tablet, cell phone or both, you’ll buy a Windows version since it looks and acts, mostly, just like what you use on your desktop at home.


Only problem with that theory is, there is a growing backlash against Windows 8. People are NOT adopting it and in fact are forming a strong revulsion to it and so advising anyone who asks. Microsoft’s big problem is, the people developing an aversion to Windows 8, are the people, that other people consult when planning a purchase.


Word of mouth baby, STILL the best marketing on the planet.

Windows 8 is like a book that I have to fully close the cover, to turn a page.
 

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