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Not so tough times for Microsoft and Surface

Ray8

Banned
But then:

Of course, the Pro's numbers pale in comparison with the iPad. Apple sold more than 20 million iPads in the quarter ending December.
 

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chrisa

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But then:

Of course, the Pro's numbers pale in comparison with the iPad. Apple sold more than 20 million iPads in the quarter ending December.

The key here being the differential in price.

You're talking at least $1129 per between the 128 gig SP + Keyboard(people always buy the keyboard and thats not including any other accessories like a Mouse if you want one). Thats like $451 million in sales in its first month, give or take a couple million based on 64gig sales(take) and other accessory sales(give). The difference being that actual profit on the SP would be far beyond that of the iPad. When you play the lower end, you sell more but your margins are a lot closer, especially when talking about the Mini's.

This for a tablet/laptop everybody media bloghead considered overpriced and would never sell.

Also remember this doesn't include OEM numbers(the combined of which i expect to be far less).. so you're probably talking at least another 100-200k units on top of what Microsoft sold.
 

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But then:

Of course, the Pro's numbers pale in comparison with the iPad. Apple sold more than 20 million iPads in the quarter ending December.
Aren't you the same guy who said you were trying to help Microsoft and that you've got all their stuff, and you more or less called me a deserter, for buying other stuff.

To me it sounds the other way around.
 

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Ray8

Banned
So if Bill Gates was still at Microsoft, who technically would be earning approx $300 million per month, $451 million in sales (less cost of sales, tax etc) would very unlikely be enough to pay his monthly salary.
 

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So if Bill Gates was still at Microsoft, who technically would be earning approx $300 million per month, $451 million in sales (less cost of sales, tax etc) would very unlikely be enough to pay his monthly salary.
You should do your homework a bit better, Bill Gates doesn't need Microsoft anymore, although I'm sure it's still his baby.

You've got a real problem Ray, did Bill Gates steal your rattle when you were a baby or something.
 

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Lomai

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So anyways, there was Larry, Curly and Moe....

You all have a wonderful weekend, whichever part of the world you are at :)
 

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chrisa

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So if Bill Gates was still at Microsoft, who technically would be earning approx $300 million per month, $451 million in sales (less cost of sales, tax etc) would very unlikely be enough to pay his monthly salary.

Since his salary is in the form of stock.. yes... it would. The stock shifting by a couple points means an extra billion in valuation. I would watch the stock price as these numbers keep rolling in :p. Heck, if SP keeps up these numbers throughout the year, next year he'll probably be #1 on the Forbes 500 given the stock price gains.
 

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SIW2

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LOL.

I expect Pro will do ok.

There are specific reasons for that.

Mass market is a different thing.

Ipad margins are around 25%, iphone almost double that.

MS margins on software are a lot higher - or at least they have been, have heard estimates of 90% . Hard to tell where they are going with that.
 

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So anyways, there was Larry, Curly and Moe....

You all have a wonderful weekend, whichever part of the world you are at :)
I'm sure even the Three Stooges could see this was going to be a hit, is it going to be sold to 2 year old babies no, is it going to be sold to Twitterers no, is it going to be sold to millions in the business world and enthusiasts yes.
 

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Ray8

Banned
So if Bill Gates was still at Microsoft, who technically would be earning approx $300 million per month, $451 million in sales (less cost of sales, tax etc) would very unlikely be enough to pay his monthly salary.
You should do your homework a bit better, Bill Gates doesn't need Microsoft anymore, although I'm sure it's still his baby.

You've got a real problem Ray, did Bill Gates steal your rattle when you were a baby or something.

Your comprehension skills are about the worst I've ever encountered, anywhere, and your ability to spear off onto a tangent, at the drop of a hat, is mindboggling.
 

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Lomai

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So if Bill Gates was still at Microsoft, who technically would be earning approx $300 million per month, $451 million in sales (less cost of sales, tax etc) would very unlikely be enough to pay his monthly salary.
You should do your homework a bit better, Bill Gates doesn't need Microsoft anymore, although I'm sure it's still his baby.

You've got a real problem Ray, did Bill Gates steal your rattle when you were a baby or something.

Your comprehension skills are about the worst I've ever encountered, anywhere, and your ability to spear off onto a tangent, at the drop of a hat, is mindboggling.

:ditto:
 

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chrisa

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LOL.

I expect Pro will do ok.

There are specific reasons for that.

Mass market is a different thing.

Ipad margins are around 25%, iphone almost double that.

MS margins on software are a lot higher - or at least they have been, have heard estimates of 90% . Hard to tell where they are going with that.

Most of the iPads they're moving now are the Mini variety, and the cheaper you get, the lower your margin at the same %. As an example, they BOM'd out the Mini at ~$200, whereas the 16gig sells for $329. So on a sale they can make anywhere from $129 to higher profit for bigger-sized memory models.

The Surface Pro would conservatively BOM out at like $300-$400(including keyboard cover, and the actual BOM number could be cheaper), so you're talking a margin in the range of $600-700 per unit sold, and you don't eat your pool of potential buyers as fast. If they keep these numbers going throughout the year as people buy as they upgrade and expand into foreign markets, they're going to be swimming in cash in Redmond and Apple is going to have a whole lot of mud on its face concerning the viability of touchscreen laptop/tablets, with absolutely nothing in the pipeline to counter with.

iPads and Surface Pros are in two completely different markets. They do not compete against each other.
 

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LOL.

I expect Pro will do ok.

There are specific reasons for that.

Mass market is a different thing.

Ipad margins are around 25%, iphone almost double that.

MS margins on software are a lot higher - or at least they have been, have heard estimates of 90% . Hard to tell where they are going with that.
The specific reasons are that it's a real computer in tablet form with millions of programmes at its beckoning. I know a lot of people say you don't always need a computer on a tablet, but hey, wouldn't it be much better if your tablet could do practically anything.

Lets say you're playing Cut the Rope and your boss rings you on your Windows 8 phone and says can you check out this spreadsheet, you just bring up the spreadsheet check it, then straight back to Fruit Ninja. Saves running up to the attack and booting up the old PC.
 

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LOL.

I expect Pro will do ok.

There are specific reasons for that.

Mass market is a different thing.

Ipad margins are around 25%, iphone almost double that.

MS margins on software are a lot higher - or at least they have been, have heard estimates of 90% . Hard to tell where they are going with that.
Here's another specific reason.
. I don't have a surface pro, but a much cheaper win8 Atom based tablet that is full win8 and I am very productive on it.. which as a developer comes in quite handy when I am away from my main machine but need to fix something in a pinch like tonight. Having the full version of windows in a very nice form factor is awesome. My kids now have my iPad... lol
 

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SIW2

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You're a marketing pro ?

I thought you were a windows programmer, as well as an economics professor.

LOL.

I expect Pro will do ok.

There are specific reasons for that.

Mass market is a different thing.

Ipad margins are around 25%, iphone almost double that.

MS margins on software are a lot higher - or at least they have been, have heard estimates of 90% . Hard to tell where they are going with that.

Most of the iPads they're moving now are the Mini variety, and the cheaper you get, the lower your margin at the same %. As an example, they BOM'd out the Mini at ~$200, whereas the 16gig sells for $329. So on a sale they can make anywhere from $129 to higher profit for bigger-sized memory models.

The Surface Pro would conservatively BOM out at like $300-$400(including keyboard cover, and the actual BOM number could be cheaper), so you're talking a margin in the range of $600-700 per unit sold, and you don't eat your pool of potential buyers as fast. If they keep these numbers going throughout the year as people buy as they upgrade and expand into foreign markets, they're going to be swimming in cash in Redmond and Apple is going to have a whole lot of mud on its face concerning the viability of touchscreen laptop/tablets, with absolutely nothing in the pipeline to counter with.

iPads and Surface Pros are in two completely different markets. They do not compete against each other.
 

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Ray8

Banned
The reality is that the vast majority of people do not need or want a tablet that is a full blown computer. It's almost a niche market. It might be a reasonably sized niche market, but niche none the less.

The only problem that Apple is facing has been created by Samsung who have laid down the gauntlet with 7"-8" tablets, which have created huge interest in a smaller form-factor tablet. Add to that large mobile phones like the S III and IV, that are pretty capable in themselves, and the portable market is covered.

So that also creates a problem for Microsoft, as no one is going to be interested in a 7" Windows Pro tablet. What can you effectively do with it? You'll have a small screen, it's not going to be powerful, you won't have a good battery life etc. You might make a 7" RT, but then you're competing against an established market with more apps and peripherals than you can point a stick at.

And laptop and desktop users get ignored.
 

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SIW2

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Be fascinating to see what uncle Tim produces from up his sleeve. You might be surprised.
 

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