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Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC

  1. #1

    Posts : 738
    1st W10 Professional x64/W7 Ultimate x64 - 2nd Remote system: W10 Insider Builds/W7 Professional

    Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC

    Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC

    Brad Chacos @BradChacos
    Mar 5, 2013 3:00 AM

    While rumors of the PC's demise are greatly exaggerated—an industry that moved more than 350 million units in 2012 is not "dead"—computers undoubtedly aren't selling as quickly as they once did. Analysts forecast PC sales to far exceed tablet sales for the foreseeable future, but the growth rate for PC sales has utterly and completely flatlined.

    The big question, of course, is why?

    A couple of theories inform conventional wisdom. Most pundits blame stagnant PC sales on the likewise stagnant economy, or point toward the ascension of smartphones and tablets. Others argue (fairly persuasively) that the flattening of growth is attributable to the idiosyncrasies of PC sales in developing countries, where computers are a rarely replaced luxury item. A second wave, analysts say, has yet to come after an initial surge in sales in those nations.

    Like most economic sectors, the PC market is influenced by myriad factors, and some truth lies in all three of those explanations. After watching my mother-in-law happily troll Facebook and sling emails on her nearly ten-year-old Pentium 4 computer, however, an even more insidious possibility slipped into my head.

    Did CPU performance reach a "good enough" level for mainstream users some years back? Are older computers still potent enough to complete an average Joe's everyday tasks, reducing the incentive to upgrade?

    "It used to be you had to replace your PC every few years or you were way behind. If you didn't, you couldn't even run the latest software," says Linley Gwennap, the principal analyst at the Linley Group, a research firm that focuses on semiconductors and processors. "Now you can hold onto your PC five, six, seven years with no problem. Yeah, it might be a little slow, but not enough to really show up [in everyday use]."

    Old processors are still OK for everyday use

    This may come as a shock to performance-pushing PC enthusiasts but the average Joe almost never encodes videos, nor will you catch him fragging fools in Crysis 3. Instead, Average Joe spends most of his time on mundane, often Web-centric tasks: Buying stuff online, sending emails, engaging friends and family on social media, maybe watching the occasional YouTube video—on default resolutions, natch, not high-definition—or playing a few hands of Solitaire.

    In other words, hardly the kind of activity that begs for an overclocked, water-cooled, hyper-threaded Core i7 processor. Or even a modern-day Ivy Bridge Core i3 processor, if we're being honest.
    see full report

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  2. #2

    Posts : 5,357
    7/8/ubuntu/Linux Deepin

    It's not news. Fair enough if the guy wants to post about. He has to post about something.
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  3. #3

    Posts : 5,707
    Windows 8.1 Pro

    Basically. As technology progresses, so does the size of it. Look at mobile phones these days, 20-30 years ago, they were literal bricks or required a backpack to be operated. Now, for some odd people, they have replaced most of the need for a PC.

    Or laptops for example, that is what currently a PC is defined as. If you talk about a computer (your average person mind you, not people here) you're talking about a laptop. That's just what happens.
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  4. #4

    Posts : 738
    1st W10 Professional x64/W7 Ultimate x64 - 2nd Remote system: W10 Insider Builds/W7 Professional

    These days you socialize with a smart or IPhone on the social networks as well as check the main with your hand held. The newer condensed in size technologies as well as much lower rates overall allow for this. A monthly bill with airtime charges might run a few hundred or so with not too far out of state calls made in the mid 90s but now only costs about $30-$50 for unlimited text as welll as voice calls nationwide!

    The cell phone back in 95 for example would be the size of a police scanner with a rubber antennae and be carried around on a belt holder attached to a leather case. Now you typically carry a smart phone in your shirt or coat pocket only being 1/4 the size with a larger lcd display no less. The first well circulated laptops running 9x for example fetched a price of $4,000 at times while a new basic model is now seen for $700 or less with the latest version.

    Portability and convenience are the more or less "throw aways" type devices that offer web access while the desktop suffers from the lack of giant leaps in performance over what had been the case over the years where that small cpu speed difference, a little more memory, or simply having a larger faster drive made all the difference. One example to be made would be between the noticable difference found when running a 2ghz single core cpu and then upgrading to a 2.2ghz and watch things in awe years back. Now going from a 3.2ghz quad to a 3.4ghz isn't even noticed!

    The newer models of each now seen however gave the OS falling behind the hardware advances since the OS doesn't fully utiliize the new capacities where before each newer hardware had to keep up with the OS. There was still some limitations with new hardwares however in the older versions as there is with OSing a 2tb or larger drive and only trying to see a single primary used. 7 and 8 are still imposed to use a smaller 1.5tb primary.

    The actual space required however going back to XP even hasn;t grown that much in that comparison while drive capacities are still reaching well beyond the present 4tb largest very soon. Despite the advancements there once again. 7 and 8 are both modular to an extent OSs over what had been previously seen prior to the MinWin kernel and still do not require higher system specs then Vista while running faster and smoother on the same hardwares.

    It's been a back and forth between hardware and OS dilemna where one excels and then slumps behind again what is seen in the other except for the one time that kept people spending to get better namely performance out of each newer hardware like cpu being the classic example as well as ram capacities now exceeding what most would ever use.
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  5. #5

    Hafnarfjörður IS
    Posts : 4,374
    Linux Centos 7, W8.1, W7, W2K3 Server W10

    Hi there.

    True of course -- look at Micro SD cards now -- 32 GB is common 64 and 128 GB versions won't be long in appearing.

    Even a 32 GB card is enough to store plenty of music on your phone (Bye Bye Ipod) and video so you can use a phone for watching video too. -- You can easily output a phone to a top quality monitor by using a USB/MHL ==>HDMI adapter. The resolution from the phone is also often BETTER than the standard 1080p HD output as well.

    I regularly use my phone (Galaxy s III) like this for streaming video from the net to the TV -- the fast broadband available makes this really feasible now. Formerly I would have used a computer or even a tablet. As for playing offline films it's so much easier to play via the TV using the phone and the adapter and connect to TV rather than set up a laptop etc.

    I really use a laptop much less frequently now. -- For simple email, things like posting messages on this forum etc you can do this also very simply using a traditional keyboard and a phone -- connect the phone to the HDMI in on your monitor and use a blue tooth keyboard -- works fine !!!.

    Even now some smart TV's can access the net directly and have external storage ports for playing off line or local content so you don't even need to use the phone --much less a PC.

    PC's apart from special niche cases like extreme gamers are in TERMINAL DECLINE -- to deny this is like King Canute attempting to halt the incoming tide -- a bit of history for you : King Canute and the waves

    Ms IMO has anticipated this -- even if some of the existing desktop users are peeved with W8 where else are are they going to go -- even in the workplace a traditional desktop doesn't have much longer in a lot of cases to survive. Even in graphics / advertising etc a lot of the work could probably be done much more conveniently with GOOD DRAWING devices including A4 / A3 size touch monitors arranged HORIZONTALLY on the desk - or in "Drawing Board mode" rather than by using a traditional desktop.

    In a hugely diminishing PC market Ms can ignore the shout of corporates -- they are upgrading to W7 from XP anyway - and have already paid the fee -- they weren't going to do TWO upgrades in a short time in any case so Ms can ignore "the pain".

    In some cases a desktop is still useful but as I said in a diminishing number of cases -- so Ms can quite easily go ahead and design an OS where the desktop will play a smaller and smaller role.

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  6. #6

    Posts : 5,707
    Windows 8.1 Pro

    If you have a dual core, 2.0 GHz x64 CPU, with 4 gigs of RAM, and a GPU with WDDM 1.0 driver support, you're pretty much going to be set for the rest of this decade. You most likely will be able to upgrade to Windows 8 then to Blue then to 9 then to 9.5 or whatever and then to 10 probably with few issues.

    It's not the hardware that killing the desktop PC so much, it's just the quality of software. Windows doesn't demand more system resource like vista did, it went down with 7 and more in 8. It probably will in the future as well. So what's the economical reason to buy a new PC of any kind (maybe a tablet PC) if you can run the Windows OS just fine?
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  7. #7

    Posts : 738
    1st W10 Professional x64/W7 Ultimate x64 - 2nd Remote system: W10 Insider Builds/W7 Professional

    I would think a good 6-8gb of memory to cover the 64bit needs and a good 2.8ghz or faster cpu would provide the right edge since more and mroe new models have cleared the 3ghz mark for both Intel and AMD alike for dual, quad, and now AMD bringing in besides the Hex core the Octocore(8 cores) cpu line-up. Anyone need 8 cores? I don't need a Hex core(6 cores) since the quads have been working out fine on a case built to be more of a work horse while still keeping hardwares cool but not constantly cranking things up any.

    And that's another thing to note is how much easier it is now with the right set up to turn things up on both cpu and video cards when wanting that extra edge. The high end cards over the last few years or so will still be good years later provided the support is still there of course. In most cases the economu dictates the need for faster turnovers for companies to profit more however like ATI was doing fast before bought out by AMD. An entire model series was dropped one or two updates following the initial release of the same model series showing how fast the original ATI was dropping support for the fast buck before going out for good!

    Likewise you can also compare hand helds to an even faster turnover disposable technology on the market that is outdated much sooner! The new IPad draws the herds in a heartbeat as you have heard often enough! But the hand held is not the same or ever will be as that home pc you sit in front for many things.

    How would you game on a Win 8 phone with twin lcds? You can't! Are you going to run a high res 1st person shooter on a tablet? Not likely especially if you have any auto racing game set up for dual displays you won't! For that you still need VPU as well as processing power only seen on a gaming rig desktop while some custom gaming laptops will try to compete in that area.

    Yet despite all that you can still hardwares that are a few years old still that are "ancient history" in general in the computing field as any new pc automatically loses some 80% of it's retail value in under 2yrs. times as the rule of thought has been all along. The hardwares if still in good shape will still run things however while not being the latest thrills in the reviews. The phones and other hand helds on the other hand simply die off much faster from the hugh swifter turnovers in mobile technologies as well as carrier special deals, etc.

    "Calling Dick Tracy! Where are you?" was the thought of some of the latest news in development of not only how much your hand held or phone can do that you carry around with you but what the next watch you wear will be able to do. Watch tv and browse the web on your wrist?! is about the size of it where smaller technologies get involved. But will you want to sit for hours watching a movie on your wrist or watch it full screen on a large px monitor or flat screen with the pc patched to it? since new tvs for some time have been capable of being used as monitors as well as recevers?

    Home entertainment is another aspect that will manage to keep the pc alive to some extent from what you are also able to do on your desktop. But even there hardware barriers are still trying to be broken such as what Seagate has been working for seeing hugh drive capacities revealed over the next several months regarding new coating for platters in mechanical drives to reach anywhere from 20tb upwards of 60tb. The cpus will still run at similar speeds however you can attain presently even with a little oc work. The OS side remains as of "still works on existing hardwares" as those become more cloud orientated being modular in form.
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  8. #8

    Posts : 4,515
    Vista and Win7

    True of course -- look at Micro SD cards now -- 32 GB is common 64 and 128 GB versions won't be long in appearing.
    Here is a whole selection of 64GB micro SD cards.
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  9. #9

    Posts : 738
    1st W10 Professional x64/W7 Ultimate x64 - 2nd Remote system: W10 Insider Builds/W7 Professional

    The capacities being seen for SD Cards is nothing new. That has been an ongoing process since they are used now for far more then your typical camera or camcorder but have been in use with cell phones and other hand held devices like IPads, smart phones, etc. now for a few years already. They can act like a hard drive on smart books even for dual booting OSs even!
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  10. #10

    What about the capacity of USB 3.0 drives. There are even 1 terabyte USB 3.0 drives you can get now though the prices are still sky high for ones that big.

    Me, I'll be fragging Crysis 3 at max settings on my ancient hand built POS overclocked Q9650 @ 4.05Ghz,Nvidia board, GTX 680, 1000watt modular PS, and still, no need to upgrade at all.
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Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC

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